Ever wondered what is the most effective way to make investments in equity markets or mutual funds? When I decided that I wanted to create an investment portfolio, I spent a decent amount of time researching on the internet, speaking to people and reading popular investment magazines and books. It would have been foolish to put money on something without actually understanding what it entails, the pitfalls and the rewards, the dos and the don'ts. I had seen markets surge forward and knew of people who made a bundle of money. I had seen the markets tumble to new depths and the same people lost money and it was more than a bundle. What is the best way to invest money in the markets and at the same time protect yourself from the volatility that comes with the territory?
One of the strategies that appealed the most to me was to have a systematic investment plan. The basic premise behind systematic investment plan (SIP) is to allocate a fixed amount of money every month and invest it. Stock markets are cyclical in nature. There will be months when the stocks are trading high and there will months when they are trading low. By investing systematically every month you are effectively averaging out the cost of your investments, reducing your risks in a volatile market and increasing your gains. There are other advantages to consider, you will avoid having to make lump sum investments. When the money is going out of your pocket (or bank) in small amounts, it doesn't hurt. The bottom line is that to think big in investments, start by thinking small.
Now it's time to discuss the paradox. Systematic investments are nothing new. They have been around for many years now and many people have benefitted from it. The odd thing about these investments is that whenever the market falls, people stop their monthly debits. The flow of monies into the funds reduces alarmingly. At the same time people try to liquidate their investments putting redemption pressures on the fund itself. The point that perplexes me so much is that when equities crash, it's precisely the time to continue with the monthly investments because you are buying stocks are much lower valuations.
Take the example of ELSS equity funds in India. March 2008, saw an inflow of 1317 crores in ELSS funds (approx. 263 million dollars @ 50 rupees a dollar). Subsequently the markets crashed like never before. April 2009, saw an inflow of 93 crores (approx. 18 million dollars). What that means is that while the markets crashed more and more people stopped investing in the market. Monthly inflows were not even 10% of when the market was at its highest.
That sounds logical doesn't it? Why invest in equity markets when the value of your investments is going to fall and not grow? Flawed thinking in my opinion.
If you have invested in equities in 2007 and the early part of 2008, then you have purchased them at a higher value (compared to what transpired later on). If you stopped your investments at that time then you have deprived yourself of buying the same equities at a much lower price. Think of it another way, would you buy your favourite brand of jeans if it was on sale for 70% off? So why wouldn't you apply similar thinking to your favourite equity which over a period of time will go back to its original price if not more. Not investing when the markets are down actually makes it very difficult for you to recover investments made when the valuations are high.
The problem I see with most investors is that they think of today or think about the next 6 months which is short sighted when you want to create wealth in an asset class such as equity. In order to be truly profitable when buying equities, I think requires a waiting period of at least 5 years or more. If your investment horizon is much shorter then you should look for alternate asset classes that can give you guaranteed but lower returns.
The last two months have seen an incredible growth in the Indian equity markets. The Sensex jumped from below 8,000 points to over 15,000 since the beginning of March 2009. Guess what, now that the markets are going back up, everyone is investing again. People tend to invest on higher valuations than lower. Strange, don't you think?
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