Who is India’s next Prime Minister?

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The next general elections scheduled in India is in 2014. If Dr. Manmohan Singh survives and completes his full term (as is very likely) he would have completed 2 full 5 year terms in office. He is already India’s third longest serving Prime Minister.

It is however unlikely for Dr. Manmohan Singh to become our Prime Minister for a 3rd term; principally for 4 reasons.

1. The Congress and the UPA need to come back to power. There is no guarantee of that happening. The political cost of their colossal mishandling on Anna Hazare’s Jan Lok Pal bill is not yet know. In all probability they will lose heavy in Urban areas with the chief beneficiary being the NDA and BJP. They will hope and pray that in 2 years time their bungling will be forgotten and the controversies of Adarsh building, 2G, Commonwealth games, Cash for votes etc. will be forgiven and glossed over. The public will also blame them for the rising prices, interest rates and  inflation over the last few years.
2. He will be near about 82 years old in the 2014 elections. If he does serve a 3rd time, then he will become the oldest person to be sworn in as Prime Minister in India, a feat that is unlikely.
3. The popularity that he enjoyed in his first term 2004-09 is missing in his second term. While majority of the public have no doubt about his integrity and honesty, his second term has been a disaster with a number of ministers embroiled in controversies and scams while he himself has been largely silent on the issue.
4. Finally, after 10 years crisscrossing the country and spending time in the back benches of the Parliament, it is widely believed that the time for Rahul Gandhi to lead Congress has come. He is odds on favorite to be the Congress’s Prime Ministerial candidate during the campaigning for 2014. In the unlikely event of UPA fighting anti-incumbency trends of the last decade (04-14), it will be Rahul Gandhi who will take Centre stage and not Dr. Manmohan Singh.

We are still two and a half years away and a lot can change during this time. I would still think that UPA-II has committed so many mistakes that it is highly unlikely that they will have a similar or larger strength in the 2014 Parliament. They will have smaller numbers which may or may not be enough to form the next government. Can they muster enough support or will the NDA led by BJP take advantage? What about the so called Third Front.

My best guess is that this is going to be a hung parliament. We may have political instability and/or minority governments with external supports like in the days of V. P. Singh, Chandra Shekhar, H. D. Deve Gowda and I. K. Gujral.

From the BJP/NDA stables
L.K Advani will be be 87 or 88 years old in 2014. A 5 year term means he will be in office at the age of 93 in 2019. I think it is very unlikely scenario ever since he ceded power to the likes of Shusma Sawarj and Arun Jately.

Narendra Modi has age on his side and fanatical support in some parts of the country. The problem with his candidature is that people are either in full and complete support or aghast at the idea of him becoming Prime Minister. There is sharp divide in opinion and BJP allies may desert them if Narendra Modi becomes Prime Minister. It will also not go down well with BJP politicians in Delhi who have nursed ambitions on the high seat. He can become Prime Minister in the following scenarios
1. BJP wins enough numbers by itself. If it crosses simple majority or even falls short by small numbers, then the allies will fall in line and those that don’t will not hurt the stability of their government.
2. BJP does not announce a Prime Ministerial candidate during the election campaign. Given the apathy to UPA-II people vote for UPA. BJP Parliamentarians elect Modi who will then have 6 months to get himself elected through either the Lok Sabha or Rajya Sabha.
3. Advani is PM candidate for the 3rd time running and fulfills a long standing ambition of becoming PM. Mid-way to his term, he retires and gives Modi a back door entry.

I will be surprised in the extreme if the BJP announce Modi has the prime ministerial candidate ahead of the general elections. That would ruffle too many feathers both within the BJP and its allies.

Nitish Kumar is an outside choice within the NDA. If BJP depend on allies to form a government and Advani rules himself out, it creates an interesting position. Are the next 2 or 3 leaders strong from BJP strong enough to emerge from the shadows or will Nitish become consensus candidate. With the NDA he has a secular image and has done well for himself and Bihar in recent years.

Other BJP candidates like Shushma Swaraj, Arun Jately etc seem to cancel each other out, sort of vetoing each other off. I don’t know if the equation will change in the coming years and balance of power will shift to one side conclusively. Based purely on the last decade that looks highly unlikely that status quo will change or if either of them will cede ground for the greater good of the party.

The Third Front otherwise known as The Others
1. Mayawati – Her only hope is that the House is so messed up that she can become Prime Minister by cobbling up a motely crew for herself. Outside support from Congress or BJP would be a requirement. Even if she doesn’t last the full term she would have achieved a naked ambition she has nursed for years. If anyone withdraws support they will of course have oppressed Dalit rights and were always against Dalits in the first place.
2. Practically anyone – This is a scenario where Congress or BJP is giving outside support. Just about any consensus candidate can emerge for a minority government surviving on outside support. This happened with Chandra Shekhar, H. D. Deve Gowda and I. K. Gujral. The government will be highly unstable and will not last more than a year or two.

Game Changer – Anna Hazare
Anna Hazare seems to suggest that he will ask the people of the country to back those parties that have zero tolerance to corrupt politicians. If there is a political party (either of the big two) ready to field candidates with no taint of scam/corruption/criminal cases against them and Team Anna backs them – then what? Will the people back Anna and respond? I don’t know the answer. Is his support widespread or is it just a TV audience.

As things stand, I see a lot of uncertainty in the coming elections. The ruling coalition has been disappointing and the main opposition parties show lack of strong leadership.

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Right to recall

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Right to recall your elected representative – wow – that' is what Anna Hazare wants next. It basically means that someone elected as my representative can be recalled from Parliament. With Anna Hazare now having a nation wide recognition, civil rights representatives will use him symbolically to set up corrective measures in our democracy making politicians and bureaucrats accountable.

First there was the Right to Information Act, passed in 2005 by the UPA and part of the Congress’s election manifesto which it delivered. It took active participation from people like Aruna Roy and Arvind Kejriwal for this to become reality. Anna Hazare played a role here too, by forcing the Maharashtra government to pass a strong Maharashtra Right to Information Act in 2003. This became the basis on which the law was enacted at the national level.

Then the entire “India Against Corruption” movement and the Jan Lok Pal Bill. Once this bill is passed it will act as a deterrent and add accountability to government officials and the members of parliament. I hope the parliamentary members don’t drag their feet for too long on this otherwise the civil movement will continue to protest.

Next on the agenda is the Right to Recall. Does this mean we can recall our representatives whenever we feel like? NO. It requires certain circumstances before this can happen. For example, there are allegations of corruption against your representative and the constituents feel that until a probe determines reality, it is inappropriate for the MP to continue in office.

Doesn’t that give opportunities for political opponents to stir up trouble for the duly elected parliamentarian? Not really. Political opponents will always try to lobby against elected officials. The way this should be implemented is that an MP/MLA can be stripped of his office by the people through a referendum. If enough number of people want to recall him, then he is recalled otherwise the referendum has failed.

The referendum itself cannot be held until a certain number (or percentage) of the MP/MLA’s constituents sign a petition asking for a referendum. If the election requires popular support, then so too must the recall.

The Bill to recall such representatives will have the determine/define the circumstances of recall and the size of a successful petition to hold the referendum either in actual numbers or percentage. There will be other challenges in implementation of such a law in a country of our size. Determining eligible voters for the referendum for instance or checking the validity of signatures on the petition. You can trust the political machinery in India to exploit such a law and all such loopholes must be plugged and such actions preempted. A certain amount of electoral reform is required for this act to become reality and for it to be enforced effectively.

That brings us to the next item of Anna Hazare’s wish list. Electoral reforms. I think electoral reforms is a big enough topic for a separate blog post.

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Constitutional rights of Anna Hazare and Government strategies.

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Everyone and his dog knew that come 16th of August 2011, the anti-corruption movement would gather fresh momentum. The Anna Hazare movement and the Government of India were headed for a showdown. At 7:30 AM on the 16th, he was arrested because he would have broken prohibitory orders of the local police and staged a fast unto death.

The media coverage was a full blast as expected. Political analysts were bemoaning the infringement of rights citizens of this country have as per the constitution. Opposition parties in an extremely rare show of unity screamed foul and even contemplated boycotting the Parliament for 3 days. Elsewhere across the country people came out in support even if they didn't "Jail Bharo" as Anna wanted. The Government's position as articulated by its numerous representatives on New channels was that it had nothing to do with the whole situation.

The government expects its people to believe that
1. The Delhi police independently and without any political backseat driving set stringent rules that Anna Hazare could not/would not except.
2. That Delhi police on its own visited Anna Hazare and arrested him as - preemptive measure - because he was going to go to JP Park.
3. That the Delhi police and the judiciary sent him to a 7 day remand on his declining to provide a bond for his release.
4. That the magistrate then had a change of heart and as is his prerogative, decided to send release orders to Tihar jail.

We can talk hoarse about how the government has no right to stop its citizen from protesting and discuss constitutional rights. We can also talk about how a citizen has no right to dictate what a duly and legally elected parliament should or should not enact. I think there is fair amount of arguments for both. If the Government thinks that it is being blackmailed then there is enough evidence to support such a thought process. Equally one can question the effectiveness of what civil right activitist are adamant is a watered down version of a Lok Pal Bill that will not be effective (or as effective) in tackling corruption.

What surprises me is that the Congress and the UPA have known about Anna Hazare's intentions on 16th August for many months now. While they tried to engage with him, some of its members called into question his integrity (for allegedly spending 2 lakhs for a birthday celebration), called him a stooge of the opposition, talked about conspiracy theories. At the same time another section talked about elected parliament (i.e. people's mandate) versus civil rights activists who are not the people's representatives. Its reactions and back tracking on the 16th show a lack of proper plan to handle an emotive and explosive situation. Media seems to suggest that Mr. Sibal and the Home Minister had planned the strategy. Now both of them are well known and eminent lawyers, articulate and well educated. If it is them that came up with this solution that I am very disappointed with the thinking of the UPA.

Perhaps with the Delhi police setting up conditions (only 3 days and less than 5000 people) for the fast and Anna Hazare refusing to accept them, gives the Delhi police a leg to stand on in a court of law. The police and therefore the Government can say it is following procedure in accordance to law. So what if a bunch of people invoke the memories of Emergency. At the same time the government is in a position to quell/disburse the movement without too much political damage. I do not know if that is what the political strategists of the government thought and I cannot but feel that they miscalculated on two fronts.
A. They underestimated the mood of the common people. By calling corruption an issue that bother's urban/educated populace is a very dangerous presumption. 
B. Even if they are right in their actions (which multiple lawyers claim they are not), politics is as much about perception as it is about right or wrong. Their actions have only made Anna Hazare's movement stronger.

Anna Hazare in all likelihood will walk out of Tihar Jail on his own terms, i.e. fast as long as he wants to with no restrictions on number of people. If the Government does not bow down to his terms that he will continue to fast from Tihar Jail. Either which way his goals are met.

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The blotch on Dr. Manmohan Singh's legacy

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I have long held the opinion that Dr. Manmohan Singh will be viewed by history as the most influential man in post Independent India. To me the three prime ministers from the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty do not even come close to matching the achievements, the impact and the influence Dr. Singh has had in shaping modern India. For me two of his biggest achievements are the liberalization of the Indian economy and the Nuclear deal. Like the liberalization, the effects of the nuclear deals will be known in the coming decades as India begins to fully meet the energy needs of its population and economy.

There is so much to Dr. Manmohan Singh's achievements that cannot be listed here without rehashing his  Wikipedia entry. In a country where politics is dominated by all sorts of undesirable elements, here is a guy who is the most educated prime minister in our short history. He is more educated than all the other contemporary world leaders around. He is not a career politician, he has decades of real administrative experience spending much of his life in the Indian bureaucracy. Among the many posts he has held, he has been the Finance Secretary, Deputy Chairman of Planning Commission and Governor of RBI before becoming the country's Finance Minister and eventually Prime Minister. Above everything else he is known and perceived to be a man of impeccable integrity.

These and for many other reasons it is painful to see my favorite Prime Minister preside over a government embroiled in many controversies and allegations of scams, with ex-ministers spending time in jail. This is after all a second term for Dr. Singh, the Congress and other UPA constituents. It was the Left parties that held back the first government from disinvestments, from pursing better relations with the U.S and objecting to the nuclear deals. The people gave a resounding answer to the Left objections by wiping them out; by taking them out of the equation for UPA's second term. Finally I thought, Manmohan Singhji would be allowed to move ahead with much need reforms without political pressure.

Since then UPA-II has been busy firefighting all the time. instead of steaming ahead They had to face the CWG scam and the 2G scam costing the country astronomical sums of money if you go by the CAG reports. Add to this is their perceived reluctance to implement a strong Lok Pal bill that can potentially be a strong deterrent against scams of such scale.

 I once read/listened to explanations from the Congress party and Dr. Singh about coalition compulsions. What I understood from all the beating around the bush was that the government will be a minority without its allies and therefore when an ally is found to be engaging in hanky-panky stuff, then coalition politics mandates you look the other way. It made sense to me actually. General Elections cost lakhs of crores of rupees and months of election drama with no guarantee of throwing up a stable government. So we have to deal with what we get in a multi-party election system and a population of a billion and more. For the sake of argument let us agree that the UPA had little choice in the matter when it came to Raja and co.

What I do not understand is what coalition compulsions forced the government to continue with Suresh Kalmadi as chairman of CWG Organising Committee (OC)? The stink associated with CWG rose much before the CWG got underway. It was missing deadlines, it had substandard construction in some places and material had been purchased at exorbitant rates. The government though continued with him. What was the compulsion? The only plausible answer is that by the time the government came to know what was happening, it had little choice but to bail Mr. Kalmadi and see that the CWG went through. The pride and the honour of the country was at stake.

Above all where the UPA-II government failed the people of this country is by sticking to the perception that they are not serious about tackling corruption. They have failed to convince me and millions others that they can stem the rot. That they do not have the political will to weed out the Kalmadi's from the system nor the will to stop their allies from doing what they want. My greatest regret is that presiding over this entire mess is my favorite but unfortunately very silent Prime Minister masterfully practicing the art of coalition politics. 

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Corruption in India

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Corruption has seeped so far into our bureaucracy, our politics and apparently even our judiciary that people are no longer outraged by its mere presence. We in India have passively tolerated corruption for decades now. We are as guilty of corruption as the government we elect, its officials and its machinery. Slip in a note to the officer who randomly stops you on the road to check for a non-existent license, grease the palm of the official at the housing development in charge of approving the blueprints for your dream house, pay hafta to the local constables to allow you to run your shop unmolested. Corruption is a way of life here. I am sure there are many Indians who refuse to be part of the murky dealings, who refuse to pay the corrupt babus and who value and uphold noble principles above expediency but I don’t think I personally know any of them. For the majority of us, there will be at least one instance of our life where we have bribed someone to achieve our ends.
We are not outraged that we had to bribe the cop 200 rupees to let us go scot free for driving without a helmet yet we are mortified to note the irregularities of the telecom department are in the tune of 1.76 lakh crore (Has anyone counted the number of zeros in that amount? I didn’t even try ). The principle remains the same, no matter if it is your local policeman who benefited or someone from the “dirty” world of politics. So what offended us? The corruption? But we are already a contributing party to it. Or is it the obscenity of the amount that the exchequer reportedly lost as a result of said irregularities? Did we honestly expect our politicians to be not corrupt and be upright citizens? Don’t you think there is honestly something wrong with our perceptions? It’s a bit two-faced and smacks of hypocrisy if you ask me. Corruption is OK it is 200 rupees but not OK if it is 200 crore. Surely one is as wrong as the other. Why should the degree of wrongness make one more wrong than the other.
Maybe we should set a bar of acceptable bribes. Peg down a number that shalt not be exceeded. X rupees is OK but if it is more than X than our moral compass kicks and you shall be held accountable. The rate of inflation should also be taken into account. (We need to think of the poor babus, if the bribes don’t move along with the inflation then the bribe will continue to mean less every year)
What’s amazing is that corruption is universally acknowledged as a malaise but happily practiced by all and sundry. So what’s the solution? I never thought I would see a solution during my lifetime but there is always hope.
The drafting of the Lok Pal bill would have escaped the notice of nobody in India. If you manage to spend a few minutes with your local newspaper or your favorite news channel, then it is not possible that you would not have heard about the Lok Pal bill, Anna Hazare, the civil society movement, the attempted heist of attention by Baba Ramdev, an increasingly defensive central government and a gleeful opposition. It can be highly entertaining, much more than the usual run of the mill predicable TV shows that adorn our living rooms.
As laudable as the civil society movement is it raises as interesting question. Can a non-elected group of people arm twist an elected government into toeing their line? As absurd as it sounds it essentially boils down to a government elected for the people and by the people being forced to bend its will by a civil movement that ironically has the same public’s sympathies if somewhat indifferent collective support. Strip all the hoopla out and at its heart you will find a government that has been elected on issues that corruption did not dominate. It says much of the government’s public image if corruption has overshadowed all the other issues on which it was voted back to power consecutively. It says so much of the public’s priority of the issue over the UPA’s blanket of Common Minimum program which excludes all issues that various members of the UPA might find objectionable and only includes that which is unanimous among all parties; which is a great way of saying we promised you so many things but we have consensus over nothing and therefore lets brand it the common minimum program, bare essentials and nothing else. But then I digress from the original topic.
I personally find blackmailing an elected government with a fast onto dead highly disturbing. Is this the only recourse left to us to improve the system. Do we resort to such means every time we need to achieve fundamental and essential things? I also find the movement somewhat aggressive. I do not know if the times require such aggression from Anna Hazare and his team; I don’t know if the goals can be achieved in more amicable ways. I know that all participants in this saga are mudslinging and the real issue is making no progress. I find it fascinating that the main opposition to the UPA has criticized the government for the handling of the situation, slamming it for the Ram Leela incident and generally taking every opportunity for pot shots. They have said so much to gain political mileage but I am yet to know where the opposition stands regarding the bill itself. What do they think about the PM, the ministers, the MPs, the MLAs, the judges, the entire bureaucracy being held accountable? There has been not a single word from them. The closest I heard is that they will react when the draft comes out. Why not take and stand and express their view? I am sure the nation will be interested to know. The fact of the matter is that if the UPA keeps the MPs and the MLAs out of the purview of the Lok Pal then you can bet the farm that the opposition will support the bill, either directly, or indirectly, by being absent. The best and rosy scenario for the opposition is the walk out of the assembly knowing fully well that the government has enough numbers to pass the bill (and secretly glad for it) while at the same time show to the nation how much they are not like the parties that sum up the government and their alleged corrupt ways. Wink, wink, we are actually on your side.
What political compulsions forces the government to oppose including the PM and other high ranking members of the political strata under the purview of the Lok Pal? Think about it for a minute. Our honorable Prime Minister has nothing to hide. By all accounts he is an honest man. Even his worst critics will concede that much. He would not be threatened if his office came under the purview of LP? Then why oppose? Media reports say the opposition is because it creates a super-authority over and above a structure that’s already in place. Imagine when the most powerful man in the country has to be answerable to an independent body. What if such accountability is misused for political gains? While that might be true enough surely further checks can be placed in the draft for cabinet consideration?
I personally think the problem is different; the political opposition to such a bill is more blatant and obvious. We are asking the men and women who plunder our country with impunity to impose laws that will greatly restrict their ability to plunder us. It will be such a shame if the parliament passes a diluted version of the Lok Pal bill which will result in a toothless organization. The next few months will go a long way in determining if we as a nation can really become intolerant of corruption and if those found corrupt can be held accountable.
I am hopeful. I watch the news in the next few months with expectations. While I don’t want a draconian organization, I am sure I would like a toothless one much lesser.

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