Friday, September 16, 2011

Who is India’s next Prime Minister?

The next general elections scheduled in India is in 2014. If Dr. Manmohan Singh survives and completes his full term (as is very likely) he would have completed 2 full 5 year terms in office. He is already India’s third longest serving Prime Minister.

It is however unlikely for Dr. Manmohan Singh to become our Prime Minister for a 3rd term; principally for 4 reasons.

  1. The Congress and the UPA need to come back to power. There is no guarantee of that happening. The political cost of their colossal mishandling on Anna Hazare’s Jan Lok Pal bill is not yet know. In all probability they will lose heavy in Urban areas with the chief beneficiary being the NDA and BJP. They will hope and pray that in 2 years time their bungling will be forgotten and the controversies of Adarsh building, 2G, Commonwealth games, Cash for votes etc. will be forgiven and glossed over. The public will also blame them for the rising prices, interest rates and  inflation over the last few years.
  2. He will be near about 82 years old in the 2014 elections. If he does serve a 3rd time, then he will become the oldest person to be sworn in as Prime Minister in India, a feat that is unlikely.
  3. The popularity that he enjoyed in his first term 2004-09 is missing in his second term. While majority of the public have no doubt about his integrity and honesty, his second term has been a disaster with a number of ministers embroiled in controversies and scams while he himself has been largely silent on the issue.
  4. Finally, after 10 years crisscrossing the country and spending time in the back benches of the Parliament, it is widely believed that the time for Rahul Gandhi to lead Congress has come. He is odds on favorite to be the Congress’s Prime Ministerial candidate during the campaigning for 2014. In the unlikely event of UPA fighting anti-incumbency trends of the last decade (04-14), it will be Rahul Gandhi who will take Centre stage and not Dr. Manmohan Singh.

We are still two and a half years away and a lot can change during this time. I would still think that UPA-II has committed so many mistakes that it is highly unlikely that they will have a similar or larger strength in the 2014 Parliament. They will have smaller numbers which may or may not be enough to form the next government. Can they muster enough support or will the NDA led by BJP take advantage? What about the so called Third Front.

My best guess is that this is going to be a hung parliament. We may have political instability and/or minority governments with external supports like in the days of V. P. Singh, Chandra Shekhar, H. D. Deve Gowda and I. K. Gujral.

From the BJP/NDA stables
L.K Advani will be be 87 or 88 years old in 2014. A 5 year term means he will be in office at the age of 93 in 2019. I think it is very unlikely scenario ever since he ceded power to the likes of Shusma Sawarj and Arun Jately.

Narendra Modi has age on his side and fanatical support in some parts of the country. The problem with his candidature is that people are either in full and complete support or aghast at the idea of him becoming Prime Minister. There is sharp divide in opinion and BJP allies may desert them if Narendra Modi becomes Prime Minister. It will also not go down well with BJP politicians in Delhi who have nursed ambitions on the high seat. He can become Prime Minister in the following scenarios
1. BJP wins enough numbers by itself. If it crosses simple majority or even falls short by small numbers, then the allies will fall in line and those that don’t will not hurt the stability of their government.
2. BJP does not announce a Prime Ministerial candidate during the election campaign. Given the apathy to UPA-II people vote for UPA. BJP Parliamentarians elect Modi who will then have 6 months to get himself elected through either the Lok Sabha or Rajya Sabha.
3. Advani is PM candidate for the 3rd time running and fulfills a long standing ambition of becoming PM. Mid-way to his term, he retires and gives Modi a back door entry.

I will be surprised in the extreme if the BJP announce Modi has the prime ministerial candidate ahead of the general elections. That would ruffle too many feathers both within the BJP and its allies.

Nitish Kumar is an outside choice within the NDA. If BJP depend on allies to form a government and Advani rules himself out, it creates an interesting position. Are the next 2 or 3 leaders strong from BJP strong enough to emerge from the shadows or will Nitish become consensus candidate. With the NDA he has a secular image and has done well for himself and Bihar in recent years.

Other BJP candidates like Shushma Swaraj, Arun Jately etc seem to cancel each other out, sort of vetoing each other off. I don’t know if the equation will change in the coming years and balance of power will shift to one side conclusively. Based purely on the last decade that looks highly unlikely that status quo will change or if either of them will cede ground for the greater good of the party.

The Third Front otherwise known as The Others
1. Mayawati – Her only hope is that the House is so messed up that she can become Prime Minister by cobbling up a motely crew for herself. Outside support from Congress or BJP would be a requirement. Even if she doesn’t last the full term she would have achieved a naked ambition she has nursed for years. If anyone withdraws support they will of course have oppressed Dalit rights and were always against Dalits in the first place.
2. Practically anyone – This is a scenario where Congress or BJP is giving outside support. Just about any consensus candidate can emerge for a minority government surviving on outside support. This happened with Chandra Shekhar, H. D. Deve Gowda and I. K. Gujral. The government will be highly unstable and will not last more than a year or two.

Game Changer – Anna Hazare
Anna Hazare seems to suggest that he will ask the people of the country to back those parties that have zero tolerance to corrupt politicians. If there is a political party (either of the big two) ready to field candidates with no taint of scam/corruption/criminal cases against them and Team Anna backs them – then what? Will the people back Anna and respond? I don’t know the answer. Is his support widespread or is it just a TV audience.

As things stand, I see a lot of uncertainty in the coming elections. The ruling coalition has been disappointing and the main opposition parties show lack of strong leadership.


1 comment:

Harpreet said...

It is certainly an interesting setup where no political party has any edge over the other. Right now, the NDA may have earned points because of Congress' misery. But, the Congress might just do some face saving act in the next two years(last time it was the Nuclear Deal) and the people would just forget the past. In this turmoil, I hope Team Anna can at the least get a few legislation bills passed, so that the people of India get untainted candidates to choose from in the next elections.